People scattered through a city plaza of red and gray brick. A group of four stands to the left underneath a curved, white and blue electronic banner. ‘USE YOUR VOTE’ is titled in dark blue letters. Photo courtesy of European Parliment via flickr.
BY LILIANA STINSON ’27
STAFF WRITER
2024 has been, and continues to be, a big year for elections. At least 64 countries will have participated in national elections by the end of December, with roughly half of the world’s population as constituents, according to Time. This will give billions of citizens a historic opportunity to fundamentally shape domestic, regional and global political landscapes.
Indeed, just in the last month, numerous crucial elections took place, overwhelmingly resulting in incumbents losing their positions across the globe.
India
India’s general election process stretched from April 19 to June 1, providing 969 million eligible voters — almost one-eighth of the world’s population — with seven polling days to cast their ballots, according to BBC. Current Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, predicted a landslide victory for his Bharatiya Janata Party, but the party only secured 240 seats — 32 seats short of a majority — in the Lok Sabha, the Indian Parliament.
Under Modi’s charismatic leadership, the BJP — a right-wing party largely associated with Hindu nationalism — has been in power since 2014. The party won a majority of seats in both the 2014 and 2019 elections; however, despite 10 years of massive popularity, Modi has grown controversial, CNN reports. His Hindu nationalist politics have become divisive as religious-based persecution, especially violence against Muslims, has dramatically increased in the last decade. In addition, “joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform” are motivations for voter dissatisfaction with Modi and the BJP, according to BBC News.
While Modi will remain prime minister after his National Democratic Alliance coalition won a collective 292 seats, these results fall shockingly short of his previous vow to win a 400-seat supermajority.
South Africa
South Africa’s national election, held on May 29, was similarly shocking to citizens worldwide. For the first time in 30 years, the African National Congress — which had been dominant since the end of apartheid — did not receive a majority. Indeed, the ANC only garnered 40.18% of the votes cast, forcing it to form a coalition government, according to Al Jazeera.
Only 58.64% of eligible voters went to the polls, the lowest voter turnout ever seen over the country’s 30 years of democracy. Voter discontent is high in South Africa. According to Al Jazeera, South Africa has the highest unemployment rate in the world, rising to about 33% in the first quarter of 2024. Inequality remains prominent throughout the country, as poverty, poor education, lack of housing and unequal access to basic services and amenities all disproportionately affect the Black population.
By forming a coalition with the Democratic Alliance — the primary opposition party to the ANC — as well as some smaller parties, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa will remain in power.
European Union
From June 6 to 9, elections for the European Parliament — one of the legislative bodies of the European Union — took place, with lawmakers being elected from all 27 EU member nations.
The EU elections have notable ramifications for the political climate of Europe, both for the whole continent and for individual countries. Europe’s most powerful incumbents suffered major losses, while conservative and far-right parties surged ahead, according to results available from the World Economic Forum.
In Germany, right-leaning parties emerged from the elections with 45% of the vote, while the Social Democratic Party of current chancellor Olaf Scholz was pushed into third place.
In France, a coalition including current president Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party only received 14.6% of the vote. They fell significantly behind the far-right National Rally party, which won with 31.3% of the vote.
One in four lawmakers in the European Parliament will now belong to the far right. The shift is associated with a surge in anti-immigration rhetoric and xenophobia, as well as the rising cost of living and economic uncertainty. The Russia-Ukraine war and concerns about AI also remained top of mind for many voters, POLITICO reported.
Despite this general right-wing shift, no single bloc won an outright majority, with the centrist European People’s Party emerging as the largest single winner, with 186 out of 720 seats. Additionally, the capacity for collaboration between the various far-right parties is uncertain, as these parties often hold extreme nationalistic beliefs, potentially limiting their transnational potential.
France
After suffering a significant loss in the EU elections, President Emmanuel Macron of France immediately dissolved the French parliament and called for a two-round snap election to be held on June 30 and July 7. With Macron’s centrist party barely polling at 15%, many have criticized his move to hold elections, as it gives the far-right National Rally an opportunity to increase its power in the National Assembly, The Guardian reported.
While Macron himself is not up for election, control of the National Assembly is crucial for the future of French domestic policy. Because of this, the French public has largely responded to the announcement with outrage, with an estimated 250,000 to 640,000 people across France protesting against the National Rally and its leader, Marine Le Pen, on June 15, according to The Washington Post. However, the National Rally is still ahead of Macron’s Renaissance Party in the polls, making the upcoming French election a notable referendum on Europe’s far right.
United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has declared that a national election will be held on July 4, despite the fact that both he and the Conservative Party are deeply unpopular.
Since Sunak became Prime Minister in October 2022, he has made numerous decisions that have caused controversy, such as his plan to send refugees to Rwanda, or his noticeably early departure from this month’s D-Day memorial service in Normandy. Additionally, Sunak and the Conservative Party are blamed for voters’ economic frustrations and the U.K.’s cost-of-living crisis, according to reporting from The Guardian.
The Labour Party has consistently polled at least 20 points ahead of the Conservative Party — indicating a potential landslide victory for the center-left party after 14 years of Conservative government. Nigel Farage — the leader of the right-wing Reform UK party — is also campaigning against Sunak, but is not expected to win more than “a handful of seats” according to Reuters.
Mexico
In analyzing these global electoral trends, economic concerns, high prices and joblessness appear to be driving voters against incumbents whether they are liberal or conservative.
The biggest exception to this trend was in Mexico, as Claudia Sheinbaum — the candidate for the incumbent Morena party — won the country’s presidential elections with 60% of the vote, The Hill reported. Sheinbaum will be the first woman in Mexico to ever hold the presidency. Her high margin of victory is largely attributed to incumbent president Lopez Obrador’s extremely popular economic agenda and cash transfer programs, demonstrating that the public perception of economic conditions is one of the primary determining factors at the ballot box.
This trend could easily apply to the United States as well. President Biden is seeking reelection at a time where only 23% of Americans believe the country’s economy is good or excellent and 62% say inflation is a very big problem for the country, according to a Pew Research Center poll from late May.
However, despite the global electorate’s focus on the economy, the 2024 elections are more than just referendums on the various incumbents’ economic policies. The future of democracy is at stake in many countries, according to observations from Vox, and growing nationalism remains a global issue, as does popular anti-immigration rhetoric and xenophobia.
Indeed, this election year has the potential to completely reshape the global order. Will voters continue to vote out unsatisfactory incumbents, or will new trends emerge? Only the next six months will tell.