Photo courtesy of Flickr.
By Catelyn Fitzgerald ’23
Staff Writer
The ongoing war in Yemen is considered one of the most complex conflicts and the worst humanitarian crises in world history. The war has raged for around six years and is driven by a myriad of political and religious conflicts. Despite its complex nature, one driving force behind the conflict is climate change. While it is not a cause of the war, climate change has acted as an additional stressor that has worsened the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
The Yemeni Civil War began in 2014 after the replacement of authoritarian leader Ali Abdullah Saleh during the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, which created political weakness and led to a growing number of disillusioned Yemenis. The newly fragile state presented an opportunity for anti-government groups to gain power and territory in support of their various interests. On one side is the Houthi movement, who oppose the Yemeni government in defense of the country’s Zaidi Shia Muslim minority, along with citizens who were disappointed with the new government. Many of these citizens now support the rebellion. On the other side is the Yemeni government, which is joined by Saudi Arabia, a majority Sunni Arab country alarmed by the rise of Houthis and their potential support from Iran. Following the start of the conflict, the Southern Transitional Council, a sepratist movement supported by the United Arab Emirates, also joined the war. The conflict between these groups ravaged Yemen from all sides starting in 2014, causing over 100,000 deaths since 2015, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
The fighting in Yemen has recently slowed due to a ceasefire agreement known between the warring parties as the Stockholm Agreement, but the lack of a definitive end to the conflict has thrust Yemen into an indefinite humanitarian crisis. Yemeni citizens currently face extreme food and water scarcities, as well as vector-borne diseases that threaten their lives and health. The United States Agency for International Development estimates that 2 million people in Yemen are malnourished, 1.3 million of who are children and that the country’s water supply will be depleted in as little as 20 to 30 years. In addition to the existing stress on food and water, blockades on outside aid by both Saudi and Houthi forces have pushed the people of Yemen into a desolate state.
Climate change will only worsen the current situation in Yemen. USAID’s 2016 Climate Change Risk Profile for Yemen states that the country will see an increased mean temperature, sea-level rise and extreme rain patterns as a result of climate change. Increased frequency and length of drought periods will prove detrimental to Yemen’s water supply, where key aquifers like the Arabian Aquifer System, which is already being overdrawn, will be replenished less frequently. Decreasing water availability and unpredictable droughts and floods due to climate change will also damage Yemen’s agricultural sector. Nearly 40 percent of available water resources are used for agriculture, which makes up 11.4 percent of the country’s GDP, according to USAID. Loss of such an important economic sector would add to current political instability and strife in Yemen.
Sea level rise poses a threat to Yemen’s coastal regions; the country is one of the most vulnerable to coastal damage, according to USAID. Not only would the loss of coastal communities hurt Yemen’s economy, but it would also displace many of its citizens. This displacement would add to the 3.6 million people already internally displaced by conflict, and such a mass internal migration could cause added instability.
While there is a lack of clear evidence to support the idea, the Center for Climate and Security theorizes that water scarcity may have contributed to the rise of political unrest in Yemen, as the decline in the agricultural sector and conflicts over water may have increased recruitment opportunities for anti-government groups. Struggles over water sources will become increasingly likely in the future as water supplies diminish.
Not only does climate change worsen the situation in Yemen, but the war itself has stifled efforts to combat climate change. Plans to increase Yemen’s water supply include the development of desalination plants which convert ocean water into drinking water, but there were fears that these plants may become targets for groups looking to disrupt the country’s water supply.
Climate change acts as a stressor and, in some ways, a driving force behind the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Yemen. As long as both war and climate change are present in the country, the two will result in a vicious cycle with no end in the foreseeable future. In order to alleviate the suffering in Yemen, increased international effort must be made to either remove the blockades on food and water, facilitate the safe relocation of citizens in areas most vulnerable to climate change or protect efforts to increase the water supply such as desalination plants. Before any change can be made, however, a widespread understanding of the links between climate change, war and human welfare must be reached.