By Lauren Cincotta ’25
Staff Writer
Vladimir Putin courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
In December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin increased the presence of Russian troops on the Russia-Ukraine border. The New York Times reported that this maneuver was accompanied by demands that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should violate its standing open-door policy, which permits any country to apply for membership, and bar Ukraine from ever applying for membership. In the same article, the Times reported that Putin also “wanted NATO allies to pull all troops and nuclear weapons from former Soviet republics and nations that once belonged to the Warsaw Pact.”
The Warsaw Pact, a 1955 agreement between Eastern European countries and the Soviet Union, was designed to combat the NATO alliance, which consisted of Western countries. The pact dissolved with the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite former Soviet Union members like Ukraine being separate countries, Russian influence in these regions remains strong.
“For many Russians in their perception, Ukrainians are pretty much the same people,” visiting professor in International Relations Natalie Sabanadze said. She cited a long shared history between the two countries and mobility during the Soviet Union as contributing factors. In regions of the country like Donetsk and Luhansk, there is a high concentration of ethnic Russians and Ukrainian-born-Russian speakers. “In those areas, there has always been more sympathy towards Russia, … more connections and more acceptance of this idea that we are two brotherly people,” Sabanadze added.
However, in Western Ukraine, there is more resistance to Russian influence. This division within Ukraine, Sabanadze explained, makes it possible for Russia to continue pushing further into the country.
The Ukrainian region of Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, after they established a strong military presence in the region and held a vote, according to The Washington Post. “The result was what Putin wanted,” Sabanadze said. “But there were, I'm sure, quite a number of Russians there who said, ‘Fine, I want to be part of Russia,’ and voted for it; so it gave some legitimacy to this illegitimate act of annexation.” This annexation further complicates the goals of Ukrainian nationalists in the West, who seek, among other priorities, for the country to join NATO. Joining NATO would be a dramatic shift toward western influence and independence for a former Soviet State like Ukraine.
According to Stephen Jones, Professor of Russian studies, the annexation of Crimea may have pushed some Ukrainians away from a close relationship with Russia. “After 2014, things switched. Putin’s strategy of intimidating Ukraine, and maintaining Ukraine as a sphere of influence, has actually pushed most Ukrainians into a much more pro-Western view, which wasn’t something necessarily held a decade ago.” Jones continued, “Russia’s actions have actually pushed Ukraine toward the West, which was exactly what Putin was trying to avoid.”
In 2008, when both Ukraine and former Soviet state Georgia were applying for NATO membership, members of the alliance debated over their acceptance, because of threats from Russia. According to Sabanadze, these tensions resulted in a difficult compromise. NATO released a statement at the time, promising membership to both countries in the future. Shortly after, Russia invaded Georgia.
Russian military intervention, such as the 2008 invasion of Georgia, has occurred in many countries in the former Soviet Union, creating difficulties for any country, including Ukraine, who wishes to align itself with the West. “Basically, what Russia says is, ‘I want to undo the post Cold War order in which Russia was a loser, and you guys were winners, and you came way too close to us,’” Sabanadze said. She believes that an invasion of Ukraine at this point would be costly, and is not something that Russia would consider lightly. However, there is a desire to convey strength.
“It's about the new order. It's about Russia asserting itself, saying ‘I have my sphere of legitimate interest and your intrusion into that sphere is a hostile move in the perception of Moscow.’”
“Russia cannot be ignored,” Jones said. “Although it's a weak economy, it’s a very important regional power in Eastern Europe, so the U.S. has to pay attention. That’s what Putin has achieved. What he wants to do is to divide Europe and the U.S., but actually he seems to unite them in terms of their conviction that Putin has to be resisted.” Jones noted that, in the past, Western countries have not always acted as strongly in opposition to Russia as they are now. He believes that this might impact the outcome of this current standoff. “It puts [Putin] in a difficult position. If he does retreat, how does he retreat? What can he get away with when he retreats without looking like this was all about bluff?” he asked.
According to an NBC News article about the U.S. response to Russian demands, “Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was “no change” in the Biden administration’s position that NATO maintains its open-door policy for countries to join the trans-Atlantic alliance. He did not offer specifics about the response, which he said would not be released publicly.” The public nature of Russia’s demands puts the spotlight on different nations as they respond. “The result [of the current Russian demands] is that NATO once again found that neutral countries, such as Finland and Sweden, are seriously considering joining NATO and this new cold war situation is being established.” Forcing global powers to make choices on how to handle these recent demands is creating conflict, calling on foreign powers to pick sides as they did during the Cold War period in the 1980’s.
Now, the world is waiting for Russia to respond to the U.S. Jones believes the consequences of this standoff could come in the form of economic measures, stating, “Much of [Russia’s] economic activity is dependent on its financial services sector, particularly Russian banks. If they were in some way restricted in their activities, that would be a terrible blow to Russia. So, the West does have important economic weapons that it can use.”
While a Russian invasion of Ukraine would likely result in a long war that would be difficult for Putin to control, Jones believes other concessions might be acceptable.
“[Putin] might try [to] extract some sort of promise from NATO about not going any further, or restrictions on its troop deployments … But he is in a very difficult position now because if he does withdraw, he can't just withdraw. He has to withdraw with something,” like concessions from the Ukraine. Another possibility, Jones said, is that Russia could take another part of Ukraine as a result of peace talks, to prevent a larger invasion.
“The demands are the kind that [Russia] knows — they’re not going to be met,” Sabanadze concluded. “Russia is putting up demands it knows will be rejected, but another is that it has published its proposals. This is also something very rare in diplomacy.”
The high profile diplomatic negotiation between Russia and Ukraine as well as other major powers including the U.S. and European allies has captured the world’s attention. As the situation evolves daily, international tensions continue to rise. “This probably is the most dramatic moment that we are living since the collapse of the Soviet Union,” Sabanadze declared.