Graphic by Delaney Gardner ’26
By Genevieve Zahner ’26
Sports Editor
For the past few months, the 2024 United States presidential election has been a highly anticipated event nationwide and across the globe. Since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate after current President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, many have been curious to see how the election will pan out with the nation’s first female presidency being a possible outcome. On Tuesday, Oct. 22, Mount Holyoke professors Adam Hilton, Christopher Mitchell and Asha Castleberry-Hernandez joined College President Danielle Holley and Massachusetts State Senator Jacob Oliviera to discuss different aspects of the election in the“What to Expect in the 2024 US Elections” panel hosted in Gamble Auditorium.
The panel opened with each member giving a short presentation on the different potential outcomes of this election, respective to their own specialties. Hilton outlined the consequences for the House and Senate races.
Currently, Republicans control 220 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 212 seats; 218 are needed to have a House majority. In the Senate, Democrats are defending 23 of 34 seats up for reelection. Hilton also spoke about the potential outcomes for each presidential candidate in regard to Congress. If Trump wins, Democrats are likely to concede; he would have the backing of a Republican controlled Senate, allowing him to begin enacting the policy proposals outlined in Project 2025. Project 2025, described as a proposal “wish list” for a second Trump presidency by BBC News, has dozens of former Trump administration members as contributors. However, a divided Congress will likely result in frustration for Trump, which is the best check of power for radical projects such as Project 2025.
If Harris wins, Republicans are likely to contest, similarly to the 2020 election cycle. If Harris wins and has a divided Congress, she will have difficulties enacting her political agenda. However, if there is a Republican-controlled Senate during a Harris presidency, she will likely experience impeachment efforts and investigations from Republican officials.
Holley opened her presentation by acknowledging the anxiety many feel surrounding the election, then approaching the election from a legal perspective. She touched on voter suppression efforts in different states, such as ongoing gerrymandering attempts in Mississippi and threats of poll watchers challenging voters. Holley claimed that many of these efforts have targeted college students, such as University of Wisconsin students receiving text messages saying it was illegal to vote using their college address, and Allegheny Community College students getting a notice saying proof of utility bills was needed to vote. However, none of these efforts were anything more than attempts at voter intimidation.
Holley highlighted the differences between the two candidates by naming the many issues, such as abortion, immigration and gender-affirming care that, under Trump, would be left at the discretion of the states, and under Harris would see federal intervention. Holley also noted the potential for at least three U.S. Supreme Court appointments under the next president. With the current Supreme Court Republican majority, the winning candidate will likely have a major impact on the future of American law.
Oliviera, on the other hand, put emphasis on the importance of local politics. If gender-affirming care and abortion do become issues that are decided by states, local senators and government officials will become more important than ever. However, Oliviera noted his belief that these should be legislated on the federal level because they are issues of basic human rights. He also remarked that in issues of censorship and book banning, local libraries and school boards are often the ones making these decisions, emphasizing the importance of being involved, whether in participation or running for a position.
Additionally, Oliviera noted that higher positions elected from state or local-level government pools such as secretaries of state, alongside town or city clerks, are important in elections because they control vote counting and enforce following election laws. Oliviera stressed the importance of being involved locally, because local elections have potential to affect the federal government and local laws in ways that are becoming more pressing.
Castleberry-Hernandez spoke on issues of national security. She said that if Harris wins, the United States may see more funding of the State Department, and continuing support for defense, as well as a maintaining of strong global leadership. If Trump is appointed, the U.S. can expect a withdrawal from many international organizations and agreements, and increased defense spending. Castleberry-Hernadez claimed that under Harris, the U.S. can expect continued support for pressing global conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as continued humanitarian aid efforts for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Under Trump, there would likely be more support for Israel’s offensive in Gaza but no efforts to give humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Trump is also expected to reduce aid to Ukraine, limiting its ability to continue to challenge Russia, she said. In fact, Trump is expected to demonstrate support for Russia, if elected in November.
Finally, Mitchell outlined the financial impacts of the election, highlighting that the U.S.is in the midst of an economic structural change. He also spoke on inflation, and how wages have gone up alongside prices. Even at the country’s worst, Mitchell noted, the U.S. economy has been performing better than other countries, such as those in the European Union.
Many panel members spoke on the importance of action, with Castleberry-Hernandez and Hilton emphasizing the importance of community consciousness and action, especially surrounding issues of gender-affirming care and conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas and Russia- Ukraine wars. Hilton encouraged “touching grass” to prevent getting overwhelmed. He also spoke on the reasons to have hope, emphasizing local politics and the idea that elections do not equal politics. According to Hilton, movement building and action should continue in the face of either election outcome.
Madeleine Diesl ’28 contributed fact-checking.