Picture courtesy of the United States Congress via Wikimedia Commons
By Bryn Healy ‘24
NEWS EDITOR
The former Congressman George Santos (NY-3) made headlines throughout his brief sojourn in office for frequent fabrication of stories about his past.
After the announcement of 23 fraud charges against Santos, a bipartisan vote (311-114) expelled Santos from the House of Representatives, according to CNN. This removal makes Rep. Santos only the sixth person expelled from the House of Representatives and the first without a felony conviction or having been a Confederate soldier. This left a critical seat open for the narrow Republican majority.
The two candidates for the seat were Republican Mazi Pilip and former New York Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi. Prior to Santos, Suozzi had represented New York’s third district in Congress from 2017 to 2023 but did not run for reelection in 2022. Both candidates ran on the “migrant crisis” and distanced themselves from the faces of their parties, former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, respectively, during the race, POLITICO reported.
This choice aligns with NY-3’s opinions on both presumed 2024 presidential candidates. A Siena College Research Institute poll conducted before the election found that Biden had -18 points and Trump had -15.
Typically, especially in influential elections like this one, candidates vie for “campaign surrogates,” or influential members or groups of their party to advocate for them. Visiting Instructor in Politics Robert Darrow told Mount Holyoke News that having these surrogates campaign for candidates may “help you draw on their name recognition and draw on their popularity with voters.”
According to Darrow, in the past, having an acting or former president of the United States endorse one’s campaign was helpful. However, with this election, things were different. “Interestingly, these members of Congress do not think that these two presidents, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, are going to be effective surrogates. In fact, they're saying, ‘stay as far away from [our] campaigns as you can,’” he said.
While Pilip promoted her pro-life and border security positions, Suozzi focused much of his campaign on the congressional Republicans’ refusal to pass the border compromise with Democrats and the GOP’s anti-abortion stance. Suozzi also highlighted a recent bipartisan deal to fund both Ukraine and the border, but AP News reported that after Trump spoke out against it, Republicans withdrew from the compromise. To Assistant Professor of Politics Adam Hilton, this stance was not unexpected.
“Suozzi's election platform is exactly what I'd expect to see given the district's composition,” Hilton said. “A near-even mixture of Democratic and Republican voters, overwhelmingly White, and one of the wealthiest in the country. Suozzi's border policy positions land him about in the middle of the political spectrum, and the salience of the issue is unsurprising given that a plurality of the public now considers immigration the top issue of concern.”
A 2024 Marist Poll found that immigration was seen as a top priority among Democratic voters and the number one issue for Republican voters. Additionally, the prioritization of immigration policies by candidates on both sides of the aisle in this race suggests that both parties will use this issue as a talking point during elections this November.
“[I]t seems pretty clear that the political class thinks the public is concerned about immigration, and public opinion polling shows that,” Darrow said. “This is a pretty significant change in American politics…[The top concern of voters is] almost always the economy or taxes or inflation, but no. Voters are saying, ‘We're worried about immigration,’ and we're seeing both parties … both Democratic and Republican campaigns respond to that. I think we can expect more of that.”
“We're seeing Democrats tack to the right on immigration,” Professor Darrow added. “We're seeing Joe Biden do this right, and we're seeing members of Congress do this, because I think Democrats feel like this is a losing issue for them or this is an issue that potentially benefits Republicans in November… if [the public thinks] there's a crisis at the border.”
In the end, on Feb. 13, Suozzi was victorious. Suozzi’s familiarity in a district recently rocked by the Santos scandal, as well as his strong border messaging, won the attention of voters. The former congressman beat Pilip by eight percentage points, NBC News reported. The previous representative, Santos, had also won by eight points in 2022. Suozzi’s victory may have been additionally boosted by Democratic early voting, massive campaign spending and a snowstorm on election day.
Suozzi told those gathered at his victory speech that “this race was fought amidst a closely divided electorate, much like our whole country. We — you — won this race because we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions,” The New York Times reported.
Suozzi flipping this seat narrows the already small Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which may impact how it functions for the rest of the year.
“We can think of plenty of examples of where one seat and one vote can make a difference, right?” Darrow said. “I was just reading that when the House of Representatives impeached Secretary Mayorkas the other week. They did that by one single vote. … So it's certainly possible in very close votes that this could flip the outcome or it, you know, it could lead Speaker Johnson to conclude that maybe a bill isn't worth putting on the floor if he thinks it's going to be a close vote, right.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) claimed that this loss was still a victory for the GOP. “Joe Biden won this district by eight points, Democrats outspent Republicans two-to-one, and our Democrat opponent spent decades representing these New Yorkers — yet it was still a dogfight. Republicans still have multiple pathways to grow our majority in November," Hudson said in a statement published on the NRCC website.
In reaction to the loss, Republican Congressmen Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Troy Nehls (R-TX), who had voted against Santos’ expulsion, said that this proved removing Santos was a “big mistake,” USA Today reported. However, GOP congressmen who had voted to expel Santos, like Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and Max Miller (R-OH), say that it was still the right thing to do, even with the loss on Feb. 13. Miller himself was directly impacted by the former congressman, with his mother allegedly being defrauded by Santos. According to CNN, the criminal trial against Santos is expected to occur in September 2024.
As this is a special election, Suozzi will be up for reelection in November 2024.