Photo courtesy of Flickr
By Kaveri Pillai ’23
Opinion Editor
Content warning: this article mentions racialized violence.
2022 is already a year of turbulence with global wars, a pandemic and the anxiety of upcoming midterm elections in the United States. This election cycle may challenge the Democratic party’s majority in the House and their 50-member stake in the Senate. It is also a year of state legislative elections in India, where the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party could potentially be overturned in crucial electoral states like Uttar Pradesh. What makes this year of legislative assembly elections so important is the fact that it can dictate India and the U.S.’ moves toward tolerance.
Photo courtesy of Flickr
In the U.S., Democrats are facing the possibility of losing their House majority to the Republican party — which is being rebranded to increasingly mimic former President Donald Trump. More Republican representatives are pushing Trump’s 2020 election fraud claims and aligning with his radical conservative ideology. Recent news of GOP states enacting anti-LGBTQ+ laws in schools and their persistent inability to embrace concepts of racial injustice exemplifies their choice of intolerance as a mode of governance. India’s BJP operates similarly, establishing itself as a Hindu majoritarian regime that preys on religious and class minorities. For two incredibly important democracies, this treacherous path to discriminatory policies can undermine both countries’ core constitutional values of equality and fair representation. At the end of this year, the new representative chamber will tell us what the voters want for their countries and where these countries are going to go in their quest to either accept or reject liberality.
In the U.S., as mentioned in a Jan. 22 NPR Weekend Edition segment, there is a pattern of parties in power losing midterm seats. Considering issues like President Joe Biden’s low approval rating due to economic inflation and management of COVID-19, Democrats losing their majority in the House isn’t an absurd theory. An opinion article published by The Hill in 2021 compared Biden to former Democrat presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who both lost seats in their midterm elections. According to a 2009 Gallup poll, Obama had a 52 percent approval rating and still experienced a net loss of 64 Democratic House seats in the 2010 midterms. The noticeable uproar that came with the passing of Obama’s Affordable Care Act — which most Republicans vehemently opposed — was one reason for the significant drop in Democrat seats. At the same time, Republicans won six more seats in the Senate. This pattern was echoed during the Clinton administration. A 1993 Gallup poll recorded Clinton’s 47 percent approval rating. Despite this relatively high rating, in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost 52 seats in the House while Republicans won eight more seats in the Senate. Here, too, Clinton’s policies on tax increase had no support from Republican members across the aisle, leading to decreased Democratic support. To draw a comparison, Clinton’s approval ratings were 13 points higher than Biden’s are now. After Biden’s mishandling of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the current Russo-Ukrainian war, Biden’s party is in danger of losing significant support and important constituencies.
The results of this year’s elections could influence what many conservative states are doing on a federal level. With increasingly conservative representatives elected to Congress and a lack of liberal voices to counter them, agendas concerning pro-immigration policies, reproductive rights and anything remotely targeting often-ostracized individuals may soon be shoved under the carpet. The U.S. is dangerously close to approaching a path of politics that caters only to a homogenous group, disregarding policies that would help marginalized people. This process of democratic backsliding could be quickened if the midterms lean red.
India faces a similar issue. Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and home of approximately 240 million people, is considered to be an important electoral state, with 80 legislative seats in the Lok Sabha up for grabs. Along with several states where elections are due this year, UP, for the past couple of terms, has seen a BJP government under their Hindu-monk-turned-politician Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. With a policy base that is embedded in Hindutva, or Hindu identity, Adityanath’s beliefs and speeches have also been plagued with Islamophobia, and he has successfully passed legislation in the state that target the minority Muslim community. His “Love Jihad” law that outlaws unlawful religious conversions through marriage, looks down on interfaith couples and the continuous lynchings and violence against Muslim citizens that occur under his watch. These are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Adityanath’s religious intolerance. Yet, Adityanath’s once-strong position in Uttar Pradesh seems to be challenged by a nascent opposition. A third of the Uttar Pradesh constituency, consisting mostly of farmers, rose to protest against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s laws that allegedly hurt farmers’ incomes in November 2021. These farmers, along with frustrated Uttar Pradesh Muslims, have found the Rashtriya Lok Dal and Samajwadi Party coalition to be the answer to their pressing problems. With the RDL attracting votes from farmers and the SL doing the same with religious and class minorities, the opposition could be a worthy opponent to Adityanath’s tyrannical rule. With this support, the opposition will have a guaranteed 26 percent, if not more, of the state’s votes. While the numbers aren’t incredibly inspiring, it gives hope that a strong opposition could challenge the incumbent. The RDL and SL coalition this term, regardless of the end result, will dictate how strong the BJP presence will be after March 10.
The results of these legislative elections in the U.S. and in India will determine the path to securing democracy. With a global increase in nationalism, closed borders and conservative right wing regimes, the trajectory of these elections will tell us who is voting and for what they are voting. In India, for tolerance to be on the cards for voters, a shift is required in who sits at the table and who makes policy decisions. In the U.S., the Democrats must hold onto their seats for an inclusive and tolerant democracy to thrive. The choice, fortunately enough, is in our hands.