Image courtesy of WikiMedia Commons
By Helen Gloege ‘23
Staff Writer
Over the past year, devastating hurricanes, wildfires and other extreme weather events have destroyed homes and displaced people around the world. The International Organization of Migration estimates that by 2050, there will be between 25 million and 1 billion environmental migrants, or climate refugees, globally, with 200 million the most frequent estimate. This issue is further compounded by international refugee law, which does not currently protect climate migrants. In 2018, a task force on displacement gave recommendations for such measures at U.N. climate talks in Katowice, Poland, but these recommendations have yet to be pursued.
In the U.S., immigration law defines refugees as “unable or unwilling to return home due to a well-founded fear of persecution on account of their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.”
Despite extreme weather events, including droughts and wildfires that have displaced around 21.5 million people every year for the past decade, according to Internal Displacement Monitoring Center data, many governments cannot provide adequate support for those affected by these types of natural disasters. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this means “extreme weather displaces nearly three times more people than conflict and nearly nine times more than fear of persecution.”
It is often difficult to define the impacts of climate change, as it can indirectly contribute to causes of migration. For example, a study from 2018 predicts that by 2100, major tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean will rise 29 percent from previous levels recorded from 1986 through 2005 due in part to climate change. This increase will place Central American and Caribbean countries at greater risk of natural disasters, leading to increased migration within their own countries and toward the U.S.
Starting on Jan. 15, a group of around 8,000 migrants left San Pedro Sula, Honduras, hoping to travel to the U.S.. Economic difficulties of the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes Eta and Iota, which hit in November 2020, and preexisting chronic poverty and gang violence prompted the caravan to head for the U.S. Hurricanes Eta and Iota hit Honduras two weeks apart, affecting more than 4 million people — equivalent to about half the population — and costing an estimated $9 billion in damages. Around 85,000 homes were damaged and 6,000 destroyed. According to UNICEF, contaminated water systems still expose around 1.5 million children and teenagers in Central America to disease.
Gerardo Chevez, a journalist reporting for Radio Progreso de Honduras who traveled with the caravan, noted, “The caravans have a female face,” as many in the group were single mothers.
On Jan. 18, when the caravan reached the Guatemalan border, around 2,000 soldiers and police officers deployed tear gas and used physical force to disperse the group. To enter Guatemala, ID cards and negative COVID-19 test results were required. However, few can afford a COVID-19 test. Some Hondurans from the caravan still plan to seek asylum in the U.S., while others hope to stay in Mexico on humanitarian grounds. According to Guatemala’s immigration authorities, over 2,300 migrants have been returned to Honduras.
On Feb. 4, President Joe Biden ordered National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to produce a report within six months on how to resettle migrants displaced by climate change. It is unclear what this report will involve, but the move is considered extraordinary by many. Any permanent resettlement is likely to deal with Congress, where it is probable that the extension of temporary visas will be a potential solution. One option for climate migration is a humanitarian visa called Temporary Protected Status, which is generally granted to migrants already in the United States who are unable to return to their home countries because of an environmental disaster.
TPS doesn’t currently give beneficiaries a pathway to permanent residence. CSIS is arguing for a new version of TPS specific to people temporarily displaced by climate-related disasters that would be under the control of climate science and migration experts.