Photo courtesy of Jackmac34 via Pixabay. Weather predictions for this winter include higher-than-average temperatures in Massachusetts.
By Diksha Batra ’26
Staff Writer
Nov. 15, 2022, was the first snow of the season for students at Mount Holyoke College. Despite the early snow shower, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that this winter will see “drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.” Temperatures in Massachusetts will be higher than normal, and regions in and near the Southwest United States, from the Central Great Basin through the Southern Plains, have a 33-50 percent chance of experiencing warmer-than-average conditions. The only places where lower-than-normal temperatures are expected is across the Pacific Northwest to the western Great Lakes.
According to NOAA, drought is predicted in the West, the Great Basin and the central-to-southern Great Plains. Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, explained that “drought conditions are now present across approximately 59 percent of the country.” Gottschalck added, “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.” However, drought is expected to improve across the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region, with anticipated increases in precipitation over the coming months. These weather patterns are explained by the arrival of La Niña, which the NOAA explained is “return[ing] for the third consecutive winter.”
La Niña is “a climate pattern that describes the cooling of the surface-ocean water along the tropical west coast of South America,” according to a National Geographic article. According to the article, “La Niña is considered to be the counterpart to El Niño.” La Niña combines with El Niño to form the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, where La Niña refers to the cold phase, and El Niño refers to the warm phase of the cycle. “Scientists use the Oceanic Niño Index to measure the deviations from normal sea-surface temperatures” created by the two events, according to National Geographic. The article explains that “sea-surface temperature decreases of more than 0.5 degrees Celsius [or 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit] for at least five successive three-month seasons” indicate a La Niña event created by “a buildup of cooler-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific.” This buildup is caused by upwelling, which occurs when unusually strong tradewinds combine with ocean currents to bring cold water to the surface.
Usually, La Niña is associated with more rain, but its impact is different in individual regions, according to the National Geographic article, which noted that Australia faces catastrophic floods due to La Niña. Queensland, Australia, experienced one of the worst floods in history during a 2010 La Niña event, resulting in damages of an estimated $2 billion. On the other hand, La Niña benefits countries like India whose economies rely on the resulting precipitation for agriculture.
Even though El Niño and La Niña are part of a normal weather cycle, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, according to a 2019 study published in the “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.” The study, which examined data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901, found El Niño events are becoming more frequent with climate change and “forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer,” according to a Yale Environment 360 article. Stronger El Niño events lead to “severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the Pacific Northwest and Peru and cause more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic,” the article explained. Scientists behind the study warned that “if the observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing,” or human-induced global warming, “more frequent extreme El Niño events will induce profound socioeconomic consequences,” from financial damages to increased death rates.