Graphic by Sunny Wei '23. The richest one percent of the rapidly growing global population -- about 63 million people -- produce twice the emissions of poorer countries.
By Lily Benn ’24
Staff Writer
On Nov. 15, 2022, as projected by The United Nations, Earth’s population reached eight billion, approximately 11 years after the global population reached seven billion. According to The New York Times, the global population growth rate is expected to slow in the next few decades. Countries like the U.S. and China are expected to have lower growth rates, while poorer countries are expected to grow faster, with India predicted to become the world’s most populous nation in 2023.
A CNN article reported that demographers have analyzed that the population growth rate globally has slowed down in recent years to less than one percent per year, which means that the population is not expected to reach nine billion until 2037. Accounting for this new calculation, the UN now predicts that by 2100, the population will have reached 10.4 billion, peaking in the 2080s.
According to an article published by The New York Times, around 70 percent of population growth occurred in lower and lower-middle-income countries, including sub-Saharan Africa. This rise concentrated in low-income countries is primarily due to higher fertility rates than in high-income countries such as the United States and China. This is due to a lack of infrastructure for sexual and reproductive health care in many poorer countries, The New York Times reported.
In the UN statement announcing that the population has reached eight billion, UN Secretary General António Guterres explained that this “is an occasion to celebrate diversity and advancements while considering humanity’s shared responsibility for the planet,” according to CNN. The UN reported that this growth is due to human advancements in public health, nutrition, medicine and personal hygiene. Alongside those advancements, however, experts have determined that overconsumption is an issue that is contributing to environmental problems such as deforestation and climate change, The New York Times said. For example, CNN reports through an analysis done by the Stockholm Environment Institute and nonprofit Oxfam International that the richest one percent of the global population, about 63 million people, account for emissions that were double that of the poorer half of the population from 1990 to 2015.
According to The Washington Post, on average, countries with rapid population growth and lower average incomes tend to be the most affected by climate change and thus are more vulnerable to natural disasters such as the heavy rains and flooding in Pakistan and dangerous heat waves in India this past summer.
Another perceived concern generated by this development comes from an ideology originating from demographer and economist Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, The Washington Post reported in an article about the recent eight billion figure. The Washington Post explained that Malthus’ ideology claims that population growth will outpace food production, and eventually lead to famine, drought and war. The UN and many scientists have been quoted by news outlets such as The New York Times and CNN reporting that overconsumption is the leading cause of these environmental issues.
According to The New York Times, this Malthusian rhetoric has led to what some call ecofascism and ethics issues among members of the public. This came alongside an article on Les Knight, the founder of the Voluntary Human Extinction movement, who believes that the most effective solution to climate change and other environmental issues is to simply stop having children altogether. The article reports that Knight’s beliefs are rooted in deep ecology, which is known for its arguments that humans are not the dominant species on Earth and that other species are of equal importance. Knight and his movement maintain the objective of slowing population growth, the article explained. Proponents of Knight believe that overpopulation is the most pressing issue, and, to heal the Earth, there needs to be a smaller population of humans, especially as the population reaches this new peak.
Another movement titled “The Overpopulation Project” wrote in a December 2021 piece that they are concerned with how the 26th Conference of the Parties in 2021 failed to address the environmental problem they see as the most pressing: overpopulation. This organization favors implementing policy changes to limit population growth and cites the “Warning of a Climate Emergency” — signed by over 11,000 scientists in 2019 — as proof that population growth is a pressing issue. This is a popular narrative in ecofascism, according to The New York Times, which explained that the ideology often blames lower-income countries with increasing population rates for the climate issue, even when countries such as the United States have relatively smaller populations and contribute more to global warming.